SBN-metrics reinventing the game?

            When Robinson Canó first got called up to the major leagues, it was obvious he had a sweet swing.  It was smooth and short.  The eye test was used to rate players for years, before Billy Beane helped bring sabermetrics into mainstream scouting.  This has led to the development of various kinds of teams.  Some front offices try to build around players who walk and hit home runs, meaning an offensive outburst can come at any moment.  Others seek players that hit for average and can do the small things, like lay down a good sac bunt.  The five-tool method of evaluating a player still proves valid.  Power, contact, speed, fielding, and arm.  Those five tools have been increasingly divided in an effort to better rank players.  Looking at offense, the five tools can be adjusted:

Stat	Weight
Power
Horizontal velo off bat on ball in play	25%
Contact
% Contact on swings	25%
Eye
% Swings that are at strikes	10%
% Takes that are balls	10%
Speed
Top speed to 1st	5%
Top speed on bases	5%
Baserunning
# Steals	5%
Steal %	5%
X-Factor
% Runners in from 3rd, less than 2 outs	10%
	100%

Thanks to the installation of Statcast in all 30 MLB ballparks, there will be full information for all of these stats by the end of the season, at which point this tool will be applied to create a new metric, temporarily called the Offense Number.  Here is a breakdown of the areas:

·      Power—Velocity off the bat is becoming more and more prevalent.  But including only the horizontal component rewards line drive hitters, like Mike Trout, over players who might have a tendency to hit mile-high fly balls to short right field.

·      Contact—A fairly obvious one here, swings and misses are penalized.

·      Eye—While the rise of great relievers has led teams away from the “make the starter work, get to the pen” strategy, having a good eye is still pivotal to batting, Vlad Guerrero being the notable exception.

·      Speed/Baserunning—These go together like peanut butter and jelly, rewarding pure speed as well as smart baserunning.  Both steal stats are included so players who go 70 for 140 or 1 for 1 are not unfairly rewarded.

·      X-factor—A bit of a wildcard here, since doing the “little things” like grounding out to the right side to move a runner to third usually earn high fives, but no accolades.  This one accounts for the player who can hit a grounder to short with the infield deep, or sending a fly ball just deep enough to get the runner in.  A positive result should never be penalized.

At the end of the season, this metric will be evaluated and compared to traditional batting stats, to provide more insight into a new way to evaluate hitters.

By James Elliot 

Class of 2016

SBN Editor