Sports

Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

10 Athletes who deserved the ESPY more than LeBron James


            On Wednesday July 18, ESPN hosted its annual ESPY awards. As part of the awards, ESPN chooses candidates and fans vote for their favorite sports heroes in a variety of categories. While these awards are ultimately frivolous, there was one particular winner that upset me. In the category of “Best Championship Performance” the winner was LeBron James. While I believe LeBron James is the best player in the NBA and was the best player on the court during the finals, there is one important fact that giving him the award forgets. He lost. Let me repeat that. The best championship performance award went to someone who is, by definition, not a champion. While LeBron is a phenomenal basketball player, I believe that there are ten other candidates whose championship performances are more worthy of recognition.

The above image shows LeBron James accepting his ESPY for “Best Championship Performance”

1. Madison Bumgarner
            My choice for this award would be Madison Bumgarner, who single-handedly brought another World Series championship to San Francisco. The NLCS and World Series MVP went 4-1 with a save in the postseason, pitching 52.2 innings with a 0.646 WHIP and 1.03 ERA. His complete game shutout in the play-in game against Pittsburg was a preview of what would come. In the World Series, he went 2-0 with a save, pitching 21 innings with a 0.476 WHIP and only one earned run (0.43 ERA). Additionally, his dramatic 5-inning save on two days rest in game seven of the World Series is one of the most legendary performances of all time, and seals him as deserving for this award.

Madison Bumgarner appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as sportsman of the year following his dominance in the World Series.

2. Serena Williams
            Serena Williams has dominated the world of women’s tennis this past year. She currently is the defending champion in the US Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and Australian Open. Her winning has moved her to 3rd all time in Grand Slam singles titles, and she has the chance to be crowned with a calendar Grand Slam on September 12 if she can win the US Open. Her dominance at the grandest events in her sport makes her a great candidate for the award, but ESPN did not even make her a finalist.

3. Jordan Spieth
            Jordan Spieth won the first two majors of 2015. He won the Masters in a dominant fashion, shooting -18 to win by four strokes. Then, he won the US Open in a more dramatic manner, sinking a birdie put on 18 to snatch a victory from Dustin Johnson. This 21 year-old champion might be the best young golfer since Tiger Woods, and has performed best when the pressure mounts.

4. American Pharaoh
            American Pharaoh may not be human, but the renowned horse set its mark on history by winning the Triple Crown. No horse had accomplished winning those three hallowed races since Affirmed did in 1978. The dominance on the biggest stage is deserving of recognition.

5. Duncan Keith
            Duncan Keith was a crucial piece for the Chicago Blackhawks during their Stanley Cup run. The Conn Smyth trophy winner led Chicago to get his third Stanley Cup title. In the process, he played 715 minutes, fourth most in playoff history. He scored the game-winning goal in the deciding Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. He was also tied for first in the playoffs in assists with 18 and became the 11th defenseman in NHL history to score 21 points or more in the playoffs. His 16 plus/minus led the NHL in the playoffs.

6. Tom Brady
            Tom Brady picked up his third Super Bowl MVP this year for his victory over the Seattle Seahawks. He completed 37 of 50 pass attempts, throwing for 328 yards with 4 touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle’s “Legion of Boom”. In addition, his clutch performance included two fourth quarter touchdowns, including a game-deciding touchdown with 2:02 remaining.

7. Andre Iguodala
            Andre Iguodala was awarded the NBA Finals MVP for his heroic performance against LeBron’s Cleveland Cavaliers. Iguadala posted good numbers throughout the series, posting 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. However, his defense against LeBron James is what is particularly notable. Iguadala was the main player with the responsibility of guarding LeBron whenever they were both in the game. When Iguodala was playing, LeBron shot 38 percent, and the Warriors outscored the Cavaliers by 55. When Iguodala was on the bench, LeBron shot 44 percent, and the Cavaliers outscored the Warriors by 30. Iguodala was crucial to the Warriors winning the NBA Finals due to the way he played defense on LeBron James.

8. Stephen Curry
            Another Warrior, Stephen Curry, deserves recognition for his contributions to the team’s championship. The NBA MVP was the spark plug for the Warriors’ offense for the entire season. He led the Warriors in points per game and assists per game during the finals, posting 26.0 points per game, 6.3 assists per game, and 5.2 rebounds per game.

9. Malcolm Butler
            Malcolm Butler became a Super Bowl hero in 2015. His infamous interception on the goal line saved the game. Without him, the Patriots would not be Super Bowl Champions.
Malcolm Butler intercepts Russell Wilson to seal the Super Bowl victory.

10. Floyd Mayweather
            Floyd Mayweather won in the biggest fight in years by defeating Manny Pacquiao on May 2. While the fight may not have been the most entertaining one ever, Floyd demonstrated his mastery of defensive tactics and controlled the fight., as Pacquiao only landed 19% of his punches. The victory brought him to 48-0 as a professional, and defended his title as world champion.


            In all, while LeBron James played unbelievably well in the NBA Finals, he was not able to lead his team to victory. The athletes above all performed heroically on the greatest stages of their sports and, unlike LeBron, were able to win their respective championships. These champions are all more deserving of the ESPY for “Best Championship Performance” than LeBron James.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Tanking For The Win

Philadelphia 76er fans supporting their team 

Tanking is a model for delayed gratification, and current issue in the NBA. One team embracing it is the Philadelphia 76ers, who have won 32 games within the past two seasons, which is good for a 22% winning percentage. At one point, this team set a record, losing 26 consecutive games. One might ask, why is it in a team’s best interest to lose so much? This post will address one cause of tanking: the NBA Draft.

In the NBA draft, the teams that do not make the playoffs are entered into a lottery for the first pick of an up and coming prospect. The winner of the lottery receives the first pick; guaranteeing them a potential franchise-changing player. In a study conducted by advanced statisticians in the sport of basketball, the number of expected “win shares” was calculated by pick in the draft. Win shares are approximately the number of wins a player is expected to be responsible for contributing. The study concluded that number one overall picks generate 76.9 expected win shares throughout their careers and 26.5 within the first four years of that player’s career (Kubatko). Teams essentially control rookies for the first four years of their careers, given the structure of entry-level contracts, so this 26.5 number is significant. Teams finishing in last place are given the highest odds of obtaining this pick, at 25%. This is significant, as teams want the best chance possible to acquire the next LeBron James or Tim Duncan at this spot of the draft. Looking at teams losing early on in the playoffs- those with the least chance of winning it all anyways- they have 0% odds at the first pick. Also, they can expect about 6.0 to 9.4 win shares from their projected rookie (Kubatko). This is a large discrepancy between the values of a pick from a borderline playoff team and the worst team in the league. Now, putting this into the scope of a five-year period, teams would be best off to tank and accumulate a stockpile of elite talent.

Adding a high level prospect would theoretically increase a team’s chances at winning in the upcoming year; however, picking in the top-five does not necessarily guarantee a franchise-altering player. The ultimate risk teams partake in is choosing to select the next great center or next great guard. In recent years, the biggest example of this debate is the 2007 NBA Draft, featuring Kevin Durant and Greg Oden. After large amounts of debate, the Portland Trailblazers selected eventual bust Greg Oden from Ohio State, passing on eventual NBA MVP Kevin Durant. This is a prime example of a current trend spanning over the past ten years: guards outperforming centers picked in the top-four. Looking at guards selected in the top-four since 2005, they have averaged 6.64 win shares per season, significantly more than centers, who have averaged 4.52. However, expanding this analysis back to 1985, centers averaged 5.84 and guards averaged 5.61 win shares per season (Kartje). This demonstrates the evolving nature of the NBA, as the point guard position has seen a boom of success within recent years. Superstar guards such as Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, and Stephen Curry have replaced big men superstars such as Shaquille O’Neal, David Robinson, and Hakeem Olajuwon.


Given the current trend of guard success, maybe teams should have given D’Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay a better look in this year’s draft, and paused when considering Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns. However, only time will tell whom the true winners of the draft are.

The 2015 NBA draft results


By Luc Maynor 
Class of 2018

Thursday, July 2, 2015

NBA Champions

On June 16, the Warriors finished off the Cleveland Cavaliers to win their first NBA Championship since 1975. In doing so, the Warriors completed one of the most impressive seasons in NBA history. This accomplishment is even more extraordinary when one considers how abysmal this franchise has been for decades.


Warriors celebrate their long awaited championship.

The Warriors finished the season with 67 wins, which ties them for the sixth most wins all time. The only teams with more wins in a regular season that also won the Championship are the 1996 Bulls (72 wins), 1972 Lakers (69 wins), 1997 Bulls (69 wins), and the 1967 76ers (68 wins). In addition to winning basketball games, the Warriors played a dominant style of play. They led the league in defensive efficiency and were second in the league in offensive efficiency. The only other team since 1980 to be in the top two in both offensive and defensive efficiency was the 1996 Bulls. Furthermore, before the Memphis series, the Warriors were 44-0 when allowing less than 100 points. In effect, the Warriors were not merely a better version of the gimmick, run-and-gun, “We Believe” Warriors from 2007 and can do more than just shoot the 3s that have made them famous. Rather, this year’s champions were a complete team with a great offense, but also a dominant defense. This combination led to the Warriors special run.

While the Warriors experienced great success this season, that has not been a common trend in the Bay Area. The Warriors had not even been to a conference final since 1976. Furthermore, among teams that have been in existence since 1975, they are the second lowest in playoff appearances of all NBA teams in that span. On a similar topic, the Warriors 12 season playoff draught from 1994 to 2006 is the second longest playoff draught of all time, trailing only the Clippers’ 15-year draught. Considering the Warrior’s history, this most recent championship was even more special.


Team
Playoff Appearances since 1974-1975
LAC
9
GSW
10
SAC
14
WAS
18
BRK
19
CLE
19
DEN
22
IND
22
NYK
22
DET
23
MIL
23
PHI
25
UTA
25
ATL
26
CHI
26
OKC
26
HOU
27
BOS
28
PHO
28
POR
31
LAL
35
SAS
35
ORL
14 (founded 1990)
MIA
18 (founded 1989)
DAL
20 (founded 1981)
NOP
6 (founded 2003)
TOR
7 (founded 1997)
MIN
8 (founded 1990)
MEM
8 (founded 1996)
CHA
9 (founded 1989)


A big reason why the Warriors fell into such hard times was the departure of Chris Webber. After Webber lead the Warriors to the playoffs in his first NBA Season (1994), he forced his way out of Golden State due to disagreements with then head coach Don Nelson. Weber’s departure initiated the twelve year playoff draught that ended in 2007.

Finally, the question is whether this success is sustainable or if the Warriors will soon return to their losing ways of old. First, let’s consider the coach. This season, Steve Kerr became the first rookie head coach since Pat Riley in 1982 to win a Championship. Winning a Championship as a rookie coach does not guarantee future success. However, Kerr led his team to the best record for any team with a rookie head coach in NBA history. With Kerr at the helm, the Warriors appear to be in good hands.

Coach
First Year
Total Titles
Team
John Kundla
1949
5
Minneapolis Lakers
Pat Riley
1982
5
Los Angeles Lakers
Edward Gottlieb
1947
1
Philadelphia Warriors
Buddy Jeannette
1948
1
Baltimore Bullets
Steve Kerr
2015
1
Golden State Warriors
George Senesky
1956
1
Philadelphia Warriors
Paul Westhead
1980
1
Los Angeles Lakers
This table shows head coaches that won a championship as a rookie head coach. It is interesting to note that the Warriors as a franchise have won 4 NBA championships and rookie head coaches have won 3 of those.

Next, let’s consider the team’s superstar, Stephen Curry. Since dealing with ankle concerns early in his career, Curry has been an ascending star. After returning from his injury shortened 2012 season, Curry has improved every year in terms of field goal percentage, steals per 36 minutes, points per 36 minutes, assists per 36 minutes, rebounds per 36 minutes, win shares, and PER. In addition, Curry seemed to reach a whole new level this year. He earned his first MVP. Curry was only the second Warrior to win this honor (the other was Wilt Chamberlin in 1960). In addition, this superstar comes at a good value. Of all players in the top 20 in win shares, Curry leads all players not on rookie contracts in terms of win shares / 2015 salary. The Warriors have two more years on this steal of a contract. 

The above video highlights the ten most spectacular plays made by this years MVP, Stephen Curry. 

Player
Team
Win Shares
2015 Salary
Value (10^7 * Win Shares / Salary)
Rudy Gobert
UTA
9.3
1,175,880
79.08970303
Jimmy Butler
CHI
11.2
2,008,748
55.75612272
Damian Lillard
POR
10.6
3,340,920
31.72778756
Klay Thompson
GSW
8.8
3,075,880
28.60969869
Anthony Davis
NOP
14
5,607,240
24.9677203
Stephen Curry
GSW
15.7
10,629,213
14.77061378
Kyrie Irving
CLE
10.4
7,070,730
14.70852373
Pau Gasol
CHI
10.4
7,128,000
14.59034792
DeAndre Jordan
LAC
12.8
11,440,123
11.18869089
James Harden
HOU
16.4
14,728,844
11.1346145
Tim Duncan
SAS
9.6
10,361,446
9.265116085
Chris Paul
LAC
16.1
20,068,563
8.022497675
Al Horford
ATL
8.7
12,000,000
7.25
Tyson Chandler
DAL
10.3
14,846,888
6.93748077
Russell Westbrook
OKC
10.6
15,719,062
6.743404918
Marc Gasol
MEM
10.3
15,829,688
6.50676122
Gordon Hayward
UTA
8.7
14,746,000
5.899905059
Kevin Love
CLE
8.7
15,719,063
5.534681043
Blake Griffin
LAC
9
17,674,613
5.092049257
LeBron James
CLE
10.4
20,644,400
5.037685765
This table shows the value of the top 20 players in the NBA in terms of win shares. Here, value is defined as win shares / salary times a constant. Bold denotes rookie contracts, which will be lower in salary by default.

The Warriors are also in a good position in terms of their roster. The Warriors are young, and had the 4th youngest average starter age of all playoff teams. Of the three teams younger than the Warriors, only one won a single playoff game and none advanced past the first round. The young core of the team consists of Stephen Curry (26), Draymond Green (24), Klay Thompson (24), and Harrison Barnes (23). While Key players like Andrew Bogut (31) and Andre Iguaodala (30) are older, the Warriors can hope that the young players will continue to improve and that they will be able to replace older ones when the time comes.

Team
Average Starter Age
Season Result
MIL
24.6
Lost in 1st Round
NOP
24.8
Lost in 1st Round
TOR
25
Lost in 1st Round
GSW
25.2
Won Championship
BOS
25.2
Lost in 1st Round
POR
26.6
Lost in 1st Round
HOU
26.6
Lost in Conference Finals
CLE
27
Lost in NBA Finals
LAC
28.8
Lost in 2nd Round
ATL
28.8
Lost in Conference Finals
WAS
28.8
Lost in 2nd Round
CHI
29.6
Lost in 2nd Round
SAS
30
Lost in 1st Round
DAL
30.2
Lost in 1st Round
BKN
30.2
Lost in 1st Round
MEM
30.4
Lost in 2nd Round
This chart shows the average starter age of every team in the playoffs and where they finished. The starters were deemed to be the five players with the most starts during the regular season.

In all, this was a remarkable Warriors team. While Curry got fame for winning the MVP, numerous players played large roles in winning the NBA championship. Throughout the season, the depth of the team was constantly on display. For example, this year was the first time an NBA finals MVP (Andre Iguodala) started 0 regular season games. Also worth noting is that the Warriors’ two highest paid players were David Lee and Andre Iguodala. They combined for four starts during the regular season despite the fact that each is a former all-star. While this remarkable depth may deteriorate over time, the Warriors’ young starting five, a superstar in Stephen Curry, and good coaching from Steve Kerr should keep the Warriors contending for years to come.


By Andrew Latham
Class of 2017